2 Game Samples are fun to talk about. They Ultimately mean nothing.

I had a tweet get retweeted by a lot of Isles people on twitter yesterday.

Unfortunately, I don’t think people got the point of those first two words – “For Fun”.  Corsi is a useful stat because it strips out things out of players’ control you have in goal based metrics (your goalie’s save percentage, for instance) and because the larger sample size makes it more predictive than goal based metrics at an earlier point.  That earlier point is NOWHERE NEAR 2 games – at around 8-10 games corsi starts to give us a reasonable picture to look at, and around 20 games is where we really start to have a picture that we can talk about somewhat confidently (this doesn’t mean things can’t change after 20 games of course!  But the sample is meaningful).

All the #s in that tweet say are what happened with those guys on the ice so far.  So while Leddy and Boychuk have been on the Ice, the Isles have so far been successful; with Strait and Reinhart, not so much.  That doesn’t mean that’ll continue.  I suspect it will, or I wouldn’t even have tweeted it, but we shouldn’t go overboard.

Calvin de Haan may be back before we get an 8 game sample of Strait-Reinhart (although I suspect Reinhart is the casualty here, due to his waiver exempt status, so we’ll see more of Strait).  But let’s not conclude just yet the pair is a big failure.


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